The state’s Economic and Revenue Forecast Council on Tuesday produced state revenue projections showing budget declines over the next four years.
The March forecast projects a decline of $479 million or 0.7 percent in total biennial revenue for 2025-27 biennium and decrease of $420 million or 0.5 percent for the 2027-29 biennium when compared to the November 2024 forecast. For reference, the overall budget is expected to exceed $76.8 billion in the 2027-29 biennium.
Among the puts and takes found in the report include lower forecasted sales and business and occupation taxes, as well as elevated risks to the economy in anticipated tariffs along with uncertainty with conflicts overseas.
Washington job growth has been stronger than expected compared to the November forecast, in part thanks to a conclusion to a workers strike at Boeing resolved late last year which raised employment in November by approximately 33,000 as workers returned to payrolls. Although the updated forecast projects Washington employment to slow in the coming months, along with slowing state personal income growth and state housing permit issuances.
This is the final forecast update that state House and Senate budget writers will use as they finalize their proposed operating and capital budgets which are set to be unveiled early next week.