The state’s Economic and Revenue Forecast Council adopted their latest revenue forecast this afternoon which projects state revenues to decrease by $903 million over the next four years. In the current 2025-27 biennium, the forecast was revised down from the prior June forecast by $412 million or 0.6 percent and in the 2027-29 biennium by $477 million or 0.6 percent.
The state’s chief economist, Dave Reich, shared in his presentation of the forecast to the Council Tuesday that the decrease is a result of weaker sales and real estate excise tax collections, as tariffs, interest rates, and slowing job growth challenge the state’s economy. He also noted that while tax revenues are continuing to increase, they are doing so at a slowing rate.
The last revenue forecast in June also ticked downward. The next revenue forecast is scheduled to be released on November 18th, ahead of the December release of Governor Ferguson’s first budget proposal to the Legislature.