State revenues continue to exceed expectations ahead of two key forecasts this month that will determine the ultimate size of the state’s budget problem.
But that may not be enough to head off the bad news that may be in those forecasts. The caseload forecast, essentially a projection of demand for state services, is scheduled to be released Thursday. The revenue forecast is due March 20. The latter will be informed by last week’s economic review, which included a number of downward revisions due to sequestration.
Their projected impact going forward could outweigh the positive revenue growth seen since the November revenue forecast. Collections have outpaced expectations by $125 million since then, or 2.5 percent. That includes $41.6 million in the past month.
But a report issued today indicates most of the variance seen in the past month is due to one-time anomalies related to the timing of tax payments rather than an increase in economic activity.
The Legislature will use the projections found in the caseload and revenue forecasts to write the state’s next two-year budget this session.